Rolla, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

911
FXUS63 KSGF 141708
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Residual flooding will continue today following rainfall over
  the last 24 hours.

- Gusty southerly winds of 35-45 mph possible Wednesday.

- 15-30% risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Residual flooding will continue today following rainfall over
the last 24 hours:
 - Impacts: Minor to moderate stream flooding and residual flash
   flooding.
 - Details: Several rivers are above flood stage and overnight
   heavy rainfall has led to flash flooding that will gradually
   diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Gusty southerly winds of 30-45 mph possible Wednesday:
 - Impacts: Routine strong wind impacts.
 - Details: Gusty southerly winds up to 30-45 mph, strongest
   west of Highway 65.
 - Confidence: NBM probabilities for these gust values is
   60-80%.
 - Meteorological Analysis: A tight pressure gradient will
   become established across the area between a central plains
   low and a surface high over the southeastern CONUS.

15-30% risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday morning:
 - Impacts: Thunderstorms, some severe, are possible.
 - Details: Model support timing of late Wednesday into early
   Thursday. Storm mode and other details are not clear at this
   time.
 - Confidence: 15-30% per SPC outlook.
 - Meteorological Analysis: A warm and unstable airmass looks to
   overspread the region on Wednesday as a surface low develops
   over the central to northern Plains in response to shortwave
   energy. The shortwave and surface cold front are currently
   modeled to move through the area late Wednesday into early
   Thursday. LREF joint probabilities for > 2,000 SBCAPE and > 3
   kts deep layer shear is 40-70%. Machine learning guidance is
   also highlighting this period for severe weather. Many
   details will need to be worked out that are not predictable
   at this point, so stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Low cloud cover will continue to move to the south this
afternoon behind last nights cold front. Ceilings will
initially be MVFR for the regions terminals, but will improve to
VFR this evening as cloud cover slides south of the region.

Surface winds will be light and northerly this evening into
tonight with winds dropping of to 5mph or less by Monday
morning. With clear skies and light winds, patchy fog may be a
factor Monday morning but current confidence in coverage and
location keep mention out of the TAFS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Hatch